New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Tommy PhamBatting3-3
- Michael WachaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pasquantino doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Stanton singled to center, Judge scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Torres singled to right, Verdugo scored, Berti to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Soto singled to right, Torres scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / KC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +7 Elo | NYY 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 45–3610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–78 | 93–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 54–73 | 38–41 |
| Underdog | 29–5 | 55–30 |
| Overs–unders | 89–71–1 | 70–93–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–5 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
- Oct 9NYY 3 @ KC 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 7KC 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 5KC 5 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 11KC 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Sep 10KC 5 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 57%Miss
- Sep 9KC 4 @ NYY 10Picked NYY 62%Hit
- Jun 13NYY 3 @ KC 4Picked NYY 61%Miss
- Jun 12NYY 11 @ KC 5Picked NYY 61%Hit