New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stanton homered to left center (417 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Massey tripled to center, Isbel scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Isbel doubled to left, Frazier scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored, Cabrera to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Stanton doubled to center, Soto scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 45–3610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–77 | 92–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 54–72 | 38–41 |
| Underdog | 29–5 | 54–30 |
| Overs–unders | 89–70–1 | 70–92–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–5 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.