Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chisholm Jr. homered to right (375 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Garcia singled to right, Hampson scored, Garcia thrown out at second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Hampson singled to left, Pham scored, Hampson to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pham singled to center, Gurriel scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Perez homered to left (402 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Stanton reached on infield single to shortstop, Torres scored, Wells to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML KC +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 91–71 | 83–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 54–71 |
| Underdog | 53–30 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 70–91–1 | 89–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–10 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.