Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Braves- Gio UrshelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Laureano singled to center, Olson scored, Soler to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Renfroe homered to left (399 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Urshela homered to left (352 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 1Massey homered to right (390 feet), Pham scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 65%
- ML KC +175 / ATL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -186
- KC +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +58 Elo | ATL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 45–336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–71 | 76–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 55–70 |
| Underdog | 49–30 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 69–88–1 | 58–97–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 0–5 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.