Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Derek HillBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Urshela homered to left (382 feet), Laureano scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Olson homered to center (403 feet), Ozuna scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bride scored on throwing error by second baseman Albies, Hill safe at second on error, Lopez to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Olson singled to center, Albies scored, Ozuna to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Soler homered to left (383 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Hill tripled to right, Bride scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML ATL -275 / MIA +225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.0%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -238
- MIA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +77 Elo | ATL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 30–4929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–80 | 70–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–68 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 68–63 |
| Overs–unders | 57–93–3 | 84–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–8 MIA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.