Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Steer homered to left center (389 feet), Stephenson scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Marte doubled to center, Espinal scored on error and Fraley scored on fielding error by center fielder Harris II.5–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Fraley hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Soler homered to center (420 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Laureano reached on infield single to shortstop, Soler scored, Olson to second, Ozuna to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Olson homered to right (368 feet), Ozuna scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Harris II homered to center (423 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / CIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +2 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 36–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–78 | 85–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–66 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 55–27 |
| Overs–unders | 55–91–3 | 72–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.