Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urshela hit a ground rule double, Arcia scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Ozuna doubled to left, White scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Harris II homered to right center (405 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Urshela singled to center, Laureano scored and Olson scored, Murphy thrown out at third.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Ozuna homered to center (403 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Friedl sacrificed to first, De La Cruz scored, Stephenson to second.1–1
- 4Olson singled to center, Ozuna scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -145 / CIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 37–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–79 | 86–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 50–67 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 56–27 |
| Overs–unders | 56–91–3 | 73–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.