Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Blake DunnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to right center (374 feet), Biggio scored and Urshela scored.15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–3
- 8Harris II homered to right center (402 feet).12–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 112–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–3
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Dunn scored, Maile to second.11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 6Soler homered to center (400 feet), Arcia scored and Harris II scored.11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 5Dunn homered to center (422 feet).8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 5Olson homered to right center (405 feet), Soler scored and Ozuna scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 18–1
- 5Ozuna hit a ground rule double, Harris II scored, Soler to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3India singled to left, Dunn scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Laureano homered to right (354 feet), Soler scored and Olson scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Olson homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML ATL -215 / CIN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 3.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 12th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 37–4024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–79 | 86–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 51–67 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 56–28 |
| Overs–unders | 56–92–3 | 73–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–5 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.