Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Laureano homered to right center (404 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Norby scored on Morton wild pitch.2–4
- 5Norby scored on Morton wild pitch.2–4
- 4Arcia homered to left (379 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored, Ozuna to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Bride hit sacrifice fly to right, Burger scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Stowers singled to left, J. Sánchez scored, Burger to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Burger hit a ground rule double, Norby scored, J. Sánchez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML ATL -205 / MIA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +77 Elo | ATL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 8th of 3041–37 | Road vs home | 29–4929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–79 | 69–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–67 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 67–63 |
| Overs–unders | 57–92–3 | 84–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–7 MIA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.