New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vientos homered to right (346 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Ozuna homered to right (374 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Harris II homered to left center (422 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Laureano singled to right, Albies scored, Olson to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Albies singled to right, Harris II scored, Albies to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Harris II doubled to right, Arcia scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML NYM +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | 0 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +42 Elo | ATL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–34 | Road vs home | 42–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–76 | 74–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 53–69 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 79–75 | 58–94–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–15 ATL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.