Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Gio UrshelaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soler reached on infield single to pitcher, Harris II scored, Olson to second.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6J. Sánchez homered to center (436 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Norby homered to right center (419 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Urshela homered to left center (389 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Olson singled to center, Harris II scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Harris II tripled to right, Arcia scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Burger homered to left (411 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Bride homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Albies homered to left (414 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML ATL -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −6 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Darren McCaughan: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +80 Elo | ATL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 30–5029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–80 | 70–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 53–68 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 68–64 |
| Overs–unders | 57–94–3 | 84–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 17–8 MIA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.