Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grossman singled to center, Perez scored and Gurriel scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Massey singled to right, Isbel scored, Pham to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML KC -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- KC: Elo 53.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +4 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +22 Elo | KC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 36–4026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–70 | 85–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 48–29 | 72–52 |
| Overs–unders | 68–85–1 | 74–82–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.