Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Witt Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Isbel scored on throwing error by shortstop Nuñez.1–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 64%
- ML KC -205 / WSH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- KC: Elo 57.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −21 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +50 Elo | KC 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 36–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–69 | 84–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 48–29 | 71–52 |
| Overs–unders | 68–84–1 | 74–81–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.