Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perez singled to right, Frazier scored, Witt Jr. to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Frazier singled to left, Blanco scored and Massey scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 3L. García Jr. homered to center (400 feet), Wood scored and Yepez scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 3Gurriel singled to center, Pham scored, Perez to second, Witt Jr. to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Witt Jr. singled to left, Hampson scored, Pham to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pham singled to right, DeJong scored, Hampson to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Renfroe homered to center (424 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Yepez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crews scored, Wood out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML KC -180 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- KC: Elo 55.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +37 Elo | KC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 36–4126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–70 | 85–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–41 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 48–29 | 72–53 |
| Overs–unders | 68–86–1 | 74–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.