Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4
- Seth LugoPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9d'Arnaud homered to center (421 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Soler scored on error, Laureano safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Lorenzen, Laureano safe at second on error.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Blanco grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Fermin scored, Hampson out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 67%
- ML KC +195 / ATL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -207
- KC +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +17 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +75 Elo | ATL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 44–337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–71 | 76–81 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 55–69 |
| Underdog | 48–30 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 69–87–1 | 58–96–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 0–4 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.