Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, Verdugo to second.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 6Wells singled to right, Verdugo scored, Soto to third.5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Hampson singled to left, Gurriel scored and Pham scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Volpe walked, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Wells to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 43–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Wells walked, Torres scored, Judge to second, Soto to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 43–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Melendez homered to right center (363 feet), Gurriel scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Torres homered to right (339 feet), Verdugo scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pham hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML KC +170 / NYY -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -181
- KC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +7 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–71 | 83–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 54–70 |
| Underdog | 52–30 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 69–91–1 | 88–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–9 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.