Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds homered to center (421 feet), Cook scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Reynolds homered to right center (379 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6N. Gonzales homered to left center (370 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Cabrera scored and Trevino scored, Soto to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML PIT +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +104 Elo | NYY 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–43 | Road vs home | 43–3511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–79 | 82–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 53–68 |
| Underdog | 54–37 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 77–79 | 86–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.