Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cowser homered to right (432 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Soto singled to right, Verdugo scored, Soto to second, Torres thrown out at home.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Torres hit a ground rule double, Rizzo scored, Verdugo to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Urías homered to right center (405 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Santander homered to right (344 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Judge homered to left center (407 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4O'Hearn singled to left, Santander scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML BAL +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- BAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +49 Elo | NYY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–33 | Road vs home | 42–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–74 | 81–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 52–66 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 86–66–2 | 84–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–10 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.