New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bleday singled to left, Rooker scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Volpe singled to right, Berti scored.4–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 10Soto doubled to left, Cabrera scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Domínguez scored, Cabrera to second on passed ball by Langeliers.2–1
- 10Domínguez scored, Cabrera to second on passed ball by Langeliers.2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Volpe singled to right, Rizzo scored, Grisham to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Langeliers singled to left, Butler scored, Langeliers to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -185 / OAK +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 3.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +83 Elo | NYY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3047–30 | Road vs home | 36–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–71 | 82–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–66 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 29–5 | 72–56 |
| Overs–unders | 83–66–1 | 74–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–3 OAK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.