Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stanton hit sacrifice fly to left, Torres scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4O'Neill homered to left center (399 feet), Devers scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Judge homered to center (445 feet), Soto scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Torres homered to right (342 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Stanton doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML BOS +150 / NYY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- BOS +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +57 Elo | NYY 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–34 | Road vs home | 41–3311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–80 | 75–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–52 | 49–66 |
| Underdog | 40–28 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 76–70–2 | 82–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 15–10 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.