Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge homered to left (369 feet), Verdugo scored, Torres scored and Soto scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Torres singled to left, Volpe scored, Verdugo to second.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Story homered to right center (373 feet), Casas scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Yoshida homered to right center (408 feet), Duran scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML BOS +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- BOS +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +17 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +76 Elo | NYY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–33 | Road vs home | 40–3212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–80 | 75–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–52 | 49–65 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 75–70–2 | 81–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–9 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.