Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Danny JansenBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soto singled to center, Berti scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5D. Jansen homered to left (385 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Torres homered to right center (368 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML BOS +165 / NYY -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- BOS +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −15 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +25 Elo | NYY 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–32 | Road vs home | 39–3213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–80 | 75–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–52 | 49–64 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 75–69–2 | 81–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–8 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 22.