New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rizzo doubled to right, Domínguez scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Turner homered to left (390 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Rizzo singled to right, Domínguez scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–29 | Road vs home | 45–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–71 | 61–87 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–66 | 39–65 |
| Underdog | 27–5 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–64–1 | 71–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–4 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.