Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena singled to center, Robles scored, Raleigh to second, Rodríguez to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 5Raley homered to center (436 feet), Raleigh scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Semien homered to left (351 feet), Kelly scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (446 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Taveras homered to right (397 feet), Kelly scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored, Polanco to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML TEX +145 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–43 | Road vs home | 43–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–87 | 60–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–57 | 38–63 |
| Underdog | 33–30 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 70–77–1 | 68–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–10 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.