Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez homered to left (419 feet), Crawford scored and Rojas scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Arozarena singled to center, Rodríguez scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Robles scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Lowe singled to right, Langford scored, García to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Langford homered to left (388 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Jung singled to right, Smith scored, Lowe to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Lowe singled to right, Semien scored, Smith to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | −10 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 1.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 42–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–86 | 59–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 38–63 |
| Underdog | 33–30 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 69–77–1 | 67–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–9 SEA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 20.