Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Justin TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe reached on infield single to shortstop, Langford scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8García grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, Langford to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Semien homered to left center (389 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 7Lowe homered to left (349 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Raleigh scored on Chafin wild pitch, Raley to third on wild pitch by Chafin.1–4
- 5Raleigh scored on Chafin wild pitch, Raley to third on wild pitch by Chafin.1–4
- 5Arozarena singled to center, Robles scored and Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Turner homered to center (401 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Jung homered to right center (365 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TEX +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | TEX: Kumar Rocker (no track record yet) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +53 Elo | SEA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 42–295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–86 | 59–84 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 38–62 |
| Underdog | 32–30 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 68–77–1 | 66–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–9 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 19.