Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner hit sacrifice fly to left, Crawford scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 8Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to center, Haniger scored, Crawford to third.0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 7Arozarena homered to left (432 feet).0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Robles singled to center, Urías scored, Crawford to second.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Garver homered to center (408 feet), Turner scored and Arozarena scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML TEX +145 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 44–305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–87 | 60–86 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–57 | 38–64 |
| Underdog | 34–30 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 71–77–1 | 69–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–11 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 22.