New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabrera singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Raley homered to left center (403 feet).10–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 6Wells doubled to right, Judge scored, Verdugo scored and Soto scored.10–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking10–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 310–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 5Domínguez homered to center (414 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 37–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Soto homered to left center (410 feet), Torres scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Polanco homered to right (377 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Judge singled to left, Torres scored and Verdugo scored, Soto to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Judge doubled to left, Soto scored and Torres scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML NYY -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–29 | Road vs home | 45–304th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–71 | 61–86 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–66 | 39–64 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 82–64–1 | 70–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–4 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.