New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-3
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (389 feet), Judge scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Crawford singled to left, Raley scored, Turner to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Polanco hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored, Raley to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Turner hit sacrifice fly, Rodríguez scored, Turner to first on fielding error by left fielder Domínguez, Raley to second, Arozarena to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML NYY +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −3 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 1st of 3047–29 | Road vs home | 45–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–71 | 61–88 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 50–66 | 39–66 |
| Underdog | 28–5 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–65–1 | 71–76–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–4 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.