New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells doubled to left, Soto scored, Judge to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7Stanton doubled to center, Judge scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Noda doubled to right, Gelof scored and Soderstrom scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Torres homered to center (407 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Judge homered to center (407 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Domínguez homered to right (397 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Soderstrom doubled to right, Langeliers scored on error and Bleday scored, Soderstrom safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Volpe.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -180 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- OAK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +73 Elo | NYY 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–30 | Road vs home | 36–4126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–71 | 82–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–66 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 29–5 | 72–57 |
| Overs–unders | 83–67–1 | 74–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–3 OAK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.