New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-2
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres singled to right, Cabrera scored and Volpe scored, Torres to second, Trevino to second, Trevino safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Butler.10–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 7Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stanton scored, Berti out at second.8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Judge homered to center (425 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Stanton homered to left (441 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Volpe homered to left center (421 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Domínguez singled to left, Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Stanton grounded into double play, third to second to first, Torres scored, Judge out at second, Soto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Fair odds
- NYY -158
- OAK +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +75 Elo | NYY 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3048–30 | Road vs home | 36–4026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–71 | 82–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–66 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 29–5 | 72–57 |
| Overs–unders | 83–67–1 | 74–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–3 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.