Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Emmanuel RiveraBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to right, Greene scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Greene singled to right, Vierling scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Henderson doubled to center, Kjerstad scored and Johnson scored, Holliday to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Keith hit sacrifice fly to center, Greene scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Rogers singled to center, Vierling scored, Rogers to second, Greene to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Rivera singled to center, Rutschman scored, Kjerstad to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Rivera hit sacrifice fly to right, Rutschman scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Dingler tripled to center, Greene scored and Sweeney scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML DET +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +22 Elo | BAL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 44–3513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–70 | 80–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 54–58 |
| Underdog | 58–33 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 78–75 | 85–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–8 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.