Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Trey SweeneyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sweeney singled to right, Torkelson scored.1–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6McCann homered to left (391 feet).0–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Cowser homered to right (417 feet).0–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 4McCann homered to center (420 feet), Mayo scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Cowser homered to center (412 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Santander homered to left center (420 feet), Henderson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML DET +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +45 Elo | BAL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 8th of 3041–37 | Road vs home | 43–3513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–69 | 79–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 53–58 |
| Underdog | 58–32 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 77–75 | 84–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–7 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.