Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carpenter homered to right center (361 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Westburg doubled to left, Henderson scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Mullins homered to right center (396 feet), Urías scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Carpenter homered to right (376 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Sweeney doubled to center, Jung scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Torkelson homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML DET +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +1 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +43 Elo | BAL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 44–3614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–70 | 80–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 54–59 |
| Underdog | 59–33 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 79–75 | 86–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–8 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.