Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz homered to right (369 feet), N. Gonzales scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Ortiz doubled to left, Perkins scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Perkins hit a ground rule double, Hoskins scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Turang singled to center, Haase scored, Turang to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Haase doubled to center, Frelick scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Turang grounded out to first, Ortiz scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −14 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 39–4122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–74 | 77–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–52 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 46–22 | 54–36 |
| Overs–unders | 85–71 | 77–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 14–11 PIT in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.