Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Billy CookBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cook homered to left center (424 feet).1–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6De La Cruz singled to center, Marte scored, India to second.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 4De La Cruz homered to right (423 feet), Benson scored and India scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 3France homered to center (426 feet), Stephenson scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Stephenson singled to right, De La Cruz scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML PIT +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −12 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +36 Elo | CIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3034–42 | Road vs home | 38–4124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 87–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 52–34 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 76–75 | 75–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 15–9 CIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.