Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Frelick hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Hoskins walked, Perkins scored, Adames to second, Contreras to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 46–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Adames walked, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Perkins to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 45–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Adames scored, Hoskins safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Cook.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 2Yorke hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Triolo singled to center, Bart scored, De La Cruz to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Ortiz singled to center, Hoskins scored and Frelick scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +46 Elo | MIL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3044–34 | Road vs home | 38–4023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–73 | 76–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–51 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 46–22 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders | 84–70 | 76–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 13–10 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.