Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-1
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivera hit sacrifice fly to center, Slater scored, Rutschman to third.1–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Verdugo homered to right (378 feet).0–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 7Judge homered to left center (394 feet), Soto scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 6Rizzo singled to right, Stanton scored and Domínguez scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Stanton doubled to center, Soto scored, Wells scored and Judge scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Wells walked, Torres scored, Judge to second, Soto to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 40–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Stanton homered to left center (377 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML BAL +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- BAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3044–33 | Road vs home | 42–3513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–74 | 81–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 52–68 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 87–67–2 | 85–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–10 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.