Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to center (412 feet), Torres scored and Soto scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 39–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 9Soto singled to right, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 8Westburg singled to center, Mullins scored, McCann to second.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 5Soto homered to right center (361 feet), Rizzo scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 5McCann singled to right, Mullins scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 18–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 4Cowser doubled to center, Santander scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4Santander doubled to right, Henderson scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML BAL +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −12 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–33 | Road vs home | 42–3411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–74 | 81–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 52–67 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 86–67–2 | 84–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–10 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.