Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Yasmani GrandalBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yorke homered to left (399 feet), Grandal scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Grandal singled to center, Palacios scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Wells scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Soto singled to right, Cabrera scored, Soto out stretching at second, Domínguez to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Stanton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Berti scored, Wells safe at second on throwing error by shortstop N. Gonzales, Domínguez to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Triolo homered to right center (357 feet), Palacios scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (406 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Cook homered to left (400 feet), Grandal scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–0
- 4N. Gonzales homered to left center (415 feet).2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML PIT +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −3 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +58 Elo | NYY 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 43–3611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–79 | 82–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 53–69 |
| Underdog | 55–37 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 77–80 | 86–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.