Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Witt Jr. reached on infield single to second, Isbel scored, Massey to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Mullins homered to right center (398 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pasquantino singled to right, Massey scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML KC +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +45 Elo | BAL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 89–71 | 85–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 54–61 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 69–90–1 | 90–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–9 BAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.