Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Emmanuel RiveraBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tucker DavidsonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers homered to left center (395 feet), Santana scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 7Rutschman grounded out to second, Rivera scored, Holliday to third.9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 5Rivera homered to left center (405 feet).8–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 38–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 4Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Rivera doubled to left, Urías scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Rutschman singled to left, Slater scored, Holliday to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Rivera homered to center (442 feet), Urías scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1O'Hearn homered to left (352 feet), Holliday scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML BAL -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −13 | BAL: Matt Bowman (no track record yet) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +20 Elo | BAL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3045–34 | Road vs home | 43–3612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–75 | 75–84 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 43–64 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 89–67–2 | 84–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–2 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.