Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 13Buxton grounded out to third, Castro scored.8–6
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 13Conine singled to center, Edwards scored and Lopez scored, Norby to second.8–5
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 13Lopez doubled to left, Myers scored.6–5
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Castro hit sacrifice fly to center, Lewis scored, Lee to second, Santana to third.5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Bride hit sacrifice fly to left, Conine scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Lee doubled to right, Lewis scored and Santana scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Jeffers scored on error, Buxton safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Edwards, Martin safe at third on error.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Correa homered to left (427 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Bride grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored on error by catcher Jeffers, J. Sánchez to second, Burger to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Burger singled to left, Fortes scored, Edwards to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Edwards singled to left, Lopez scored, Fortes to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML MIA +215 / MIN -265
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.3%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -229
- MIA +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +95 Elo | MIN 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3028–49 | Road vs home | 43–3410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–85 | 75–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 43–62 |
| Underdog | 70–65 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 86–70–1 | 82–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.