Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Wong grounded out to shortstop, Casas scored.4–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 12Castro hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored, Correa to third.4–1
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 12Wallner singled to right, Buxton scored, Correa to second, Larnach to third.3–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 12Larnach reached on infield single to shortstop, Farmer scored, Buxton to second.2–1
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Correa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Buxton scored, Larnach out at second.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Story singled to center, O'Neill scored, Abreu to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3038–40 | Road vs home | 35–4027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–79 | 69–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–59 | 28–53 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 79–73 | 77–73–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.