Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Siri doubled to shortstop, Aranda scored, J. Lowe scored and Morel scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8González homered to center (421 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5B. Lowe homered to right (382 feet), Díaz scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Siri homered to left (339 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5J. Lowe homered to left center (387 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Caminero homered to left center (392 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Casas homered to right (398 feet), Abreu scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / TB +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 44.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +12 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 37–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–81 | 71–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–52 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 40–29 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 76–71–2 | 69–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–14 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.