Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran singled to right, Story scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Story homered to left center (394 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Walls singled to left, J. Lowe scored, DeLuca to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +6 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +52 Elo | TB 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–36 | Road vs home | 38–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–82 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 40–29 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders | 77–71–2 | 70–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–15 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.