Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-5
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Lewis singled to left, Buxton scored, Santana to second.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Edwards doubled to left, Fortes scored and Lopez scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Fortes singled to right, Hill scored, Lopez to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Bride homered to left (409 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML MIA +210 / MIN -255
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.0%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -223
- MIA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +85 Elo | MIN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–48 | Road vs home | 42–3310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–84 | 74–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 42–61 |
| Underdog | 69–64 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 85–69–1 | 81–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.