Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castro walked, Larnach scored, Lewis to second, Wallner to third.3–9
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball 43–9
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 33–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 13–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Wong singled to right, Yoshida scored.2–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 6Yoshida singled to center, Duran scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6R. González hit sacrifice fly to right, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Duran doubled to left, Abreu scored and Valdez scored, Rafaela to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Rafaela hit by pitch, Sogard scored, Valdez to second, Abreu to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5R. González homered to center (448 feet), Rafaela scored and Duran scored.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–41 | Road vs home | 36–4126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–80 | 70–84 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–60 | 28–54 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 80–74 | 78–74–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–6 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.