Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting3-4, 3 HR, 7 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Casas homered to center (423 feet).1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4González singled to center, Duran scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Castro to home on error, Farmer to first on fielding error by third baseman González.1–6
- 4Castro to home on error, Farmer to first on fielding error by third baseman González.1–6
- 4Castro to home on error, Farmer to first on fielding error by third baseman González.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Casas homered to left (360 feet), Yoshida scored and Story scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 1Casas homered to right center (400 feet), González scored and Yoshida scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -150 / BOS +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 35–4127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–79 | 69–84 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–59 | 28–54 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 79–74 | 77–74–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.