Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santana doubled to right, Correa scored, Lewis scored and Larnach scored, Santana thrown out at third.3–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Correa doubled to right, Vázquez scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Vázquez sacrificed, Margot scored, Vázquez to first on throwing error by pitcher Cronin, Vázquez to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–4
- 4Buxton homered to left center (450 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Larnach singled to center, Castro scored and Julien scored, Correa to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Burger homered to left (370 feet), Edwards scored and Norby scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML MIA +160 / MIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +91 Elo | MIN 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3028–48 | Road vs home | 42–3411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–84 | 74–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 42–62 |
| Underdog | 70–64 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 85–70–1 | 81–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.